The life cycle of hype

Last week’s Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show we discussed just before the Christmas break. If there’s one thing for sure, we can say tablet computers, 3D televisions and the Google phone are racing to see which will be the first to the “peak of inflated expectations”.

Funnily, we’ve been here before with mobile phones, tablet PCs and 3D entertainment so it will be interesting to see where these are in 18 months or so.

While it’s entertaining looking at the new gadgets, the interesting action is happening on the other side of the peak where real uses for technology and gizmos are found after the hype moves on to something newer and prettier. When the bored fashionistas move on from a product that’s no longer the newest and shiniest we see if something is genuinely useful or just a pointless fad.

Of all the predictions we can make for 2010 one good bet is social networking is approaching, if not past, the fashionable peak of the hype cycle. Particularly Twitter, which we’ve seen pronounced dead by various writers over the break.

My favourite comment was from a weekend newspaper entertainment columnist, stating the Twitter hype was driven by “Boring old farts suddenly discovering technology” and the whole thing is now dead because an MTV host declared she was over Twitter. The Luddites are crowing that Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and the entire Internet “thingummybob” can join CB radios in history’s discount bin of overhyped technology.

Citizens Band radio is a good lesson of what happens as a product moves through the hype cycle. In the mid-1970s peak, songs were being written about it and the media was awash with spookily similar stories of how CB radio was ushering in a new era of participatory democracy. Within a couple of years, the hype had passed and those who had a use for it, such as truckies, farmers and service people, got on with their work without the kids and newbies hogging their radio channels.

Exactly that process is happening now with the various online networking tools. The naysayers will crow they were right all along about a fad for boring old farts, while unknown to them entrepreneurs will be figuring out ways to make money from these tools and smart businesses will be using them to stay ahead of their slower competitors.

As well as the trendies moving on, the social media snake oil sellers who’ve traded on the social media hype over the last two years will also move on to the Next Big Thing or go back to selling multi-level marketing schemes. The honest consultants and genuine experts who survive the shakeout will be able to genuinely add value and help their clients achieve more with the tools.

So a product or technology passing the peak of the hype cycle is an excellent opportunity to use it to do great things for your business without the fashionistas and snake oil merchants distracting you. Don’t be afraid to experiment just because the PR machines have moved on.

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Paul Wallbank is a writer, speaker and broadcaster on technology issues. He founded national support organisation PC Rescue in 1995 and has spent over 14 years helping businesses get the most from their IT investment. His PC Rescue and IT Queries websites provide free advice to business computer users and his monthly newsletter has over 3,000 subscribers.