Industries to fly and fall in 2012

As Australian operators prepare for the year ahead, IBISWorld unveils its annual list of the top five industries set to soar in 2012, and the five expected to sink.

Industries to fly

Diamond and gemstone mining

As over 90% of Australia’s diamond production is exported, the industry is highly dependent on global economic conditions. After five consecutive years of decline due to lower production levels, lower global prices and a rising Australian dollar, Australia’s diamond and gemstone mining industry is expected to rebound in 2012 – with industry revenue forecast to increase by 36.7% to reach $599.9 million.

The revenue rebound will be driven by stabilising prices and higher production levels, which are forecast to increase by 39.5%.

Motor vehicle manufacturing

Motor vehicle manufacturing will grow by 14.3% to reach over $11.9 billion in the coming year as the industry continues to recover from the global financial crisis.

However, revenue is still expected to fall $5 billion shy of pre-financial crisis levels. The provision of a more diverse range of products and more environmentally friendly vehicles will be key factors in assisting domestic growth.

The value of exported vehicles is forecast to return to growth for the first time since 2009. This will be paramount to the growth of the industry, as the domestic market will struggle to support multiple large car manufacturers.

Online education

IBISWorld expects revenue from Australia’s online education industry to increase by 10.6% in 2012, to be worth just under $4.9 billion. Growth has been supported by the continued uptake of high-speed internet services, growing acceptance of online education, government financial support of students and efforts to expand access beyond the typical school leaver demographic.

The growing trend towards re-skilling for working adults and lifelong learning for retirees is expected to support continued growth in flexible methods of study, including online education.

Biotechnology

With many players in Australia’s biotechnology industry approaching commercial readiness and receiving increased global investment, IBISWorld expects revenue to grow by 10.3% over the coming year to reach over $2.4 billion.

While most biotechnology firms are currently not profitable due to their research and development intensity, continuing economic uncertainty will drive growth as leading global investors search for low-risk opportunities like commercial-ready technology that Australia has on offer.

Online shopping

While many bricks-and-mortar retailers have reported a tough year, Australia’s burgeoning online shopping industry has gone from strength to strength. IBISWorld expects this to continue in 2012, forecasting growth of 10.2% to reach revenue of $10.4 billion – representing about 5% of the total retail sector.

Growing from just $7.0 billion in 2007, the industry has experienced significant growth over the past five years. This has been due to consumers becoming more comfortable with shopping online, and more major retailers launching online stores with computer and electrical items as the most common online purchases.

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