Your last minute guide to the 2011 Melbourne Cup

A sensational betting plunge on one of the few Australian horses left in the Melbourne Cup is the big story this morning, although French horse Americain is still favourite to take out the race that stops the nation.

Local hope Niwot, who was $101 to win the Cup this time last week, has been backed into $11 after his stunning win in a key lead-up race, the Lexus Stakes held last Saturday.

Michael Horne, racing manager for bookmaker Bestar, says Niwot’s price was cut to $17 after his three length win in the Lexus Stakes, but a flood of money – including a bet of $40,000 at the quote of $11 yesterday – could see the horse start even shorter.

Americain, who won the 2010 Cup and was installed as favourite after a huge win in the Moonee Valley Cup two weeks ago, still remains favourite. Horne says the French raider’s price drifted from $4.80 to as much as $5.50 yesterday, until a bet of $50,000 at that price saw the horse’s odds cut to $5.00.

In other betting moves, fancied French runner Dunaden, who won the Geelong Cup in emphatic style last month, has drifted from $7.50 to $8.50, while Lloyd Williams’ chance Mourayan was tightened from $16 to $15 after two separate bets of $30,000 each.

While the Cup is seen as one of the more open runnings of the race in some years, it could be seen as a battle between two prominent businessmen with great chances in the race.

Lloyd Williams, who has won the Cup on three previous occasions, takes At First Sight and Mourayan into the field, both of which are given a good chance by experts.

But Gerry Ryan, who joined the BRW Rich 200 for the first time this year, looms as a challenger. He won the Cup last year with Americain and will also go into the race with Jukebox Jury, seen by many as the international challenger with the best European form.

Horne says he is sticking with the plunge horse Niwot as his best hope.

“Niwot has come from the clouds and is the horse to beat in the 2011 Melbourne Cup,” Horne says.

“He loves the track, has won over the distance and drops to 51 kilograms after his authoritative win in the Lexus on Saturday.”

“Both Shocking and Maluckyday have proven over recent years that this is one of the best lead ups, and I doubt either were as impressive as Niwot. From barrier 9 he should get a perfect run in transit and will be strong when it counts.”

He is tipping Americain to run second, with British outsider Red Cadeaux his third pick and best roughie in the race.

“Jukebox Jury won the ‘form’ race of the international runners but last start Red Cadeaux was running over the top of Jukebox Jury in the Irish St Leger and would have beaten him in another 100 metres.”

And who will SmartCompany be cheering on?

Geelong Cup winner Dunaden looks very hard to beat, with Niwot and Americain picking themselves. The best roughies may well be Lloyd Williams’ pair, At First Sight and Mourayan.