Why the Year of the Dragon is full of promise

I’m finishing the year on a positive note. As Annie says: “Clear away the cobwebs and the sorrow and bet your bottom dollar that a better new year’s only a few days away.”

For the record next year will be the year of the dragon in the dragon century. The dragon is a creature of myth and legend, historically representing power and the fifth sign of the Chinese zodiac.

The Chinese believe that there is a balance between heaven and earth in the life of people born in the year of the dragon, and this will hopefully make for a safe, smart and successful new year. Along with good fortune, these people are also good organisers who can step in at the right moment with an exciting or creative scheme.

The dragon is a creature of myth and legend, historically representing power, and will be seen by residents of the world’s fastest growing economy as an auspicious symbol that signifies success and happiness.

The Chinese Diaspora will have an enormous influence on investments in challenging emerging economies and will look to shore up the long-term security of access to commodities and begin to build new international brand presence.

The Futurist believes that the doom-and-gloomers will be faced with the reality of steadily rising corporate profits and dividend yields despite an end of year fall in consumer confidence. Gary Morgan says “The steepest fall in confidence was Australians comparing their family’s financial situation to this time last year with 27% (down 5%) saying they were ‘better off’, while now only 34% (down 4%) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years. Heading into Christmas this weekend the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is well below that of 2010 (121.8) and 2009 (120.4), however it remains above the low of 103.0 reached in 2008 — during the midst of the Global Financial Crisis.” 

Here are nine lucky trends to watch in the year of the dragon in the Dragon Century.

1. Global GDP growth will be in excess of 3 % in 2012 and expand further in 2013.

2. Central banks around the world will keep monetary policy very loose. The US Fed will lift interest rates in the second half of 2013.

3. The world’s smartest treasurers will maintain stronger balance sheets and better fundamentals for growth in the Asian region.

4. Emerging economies will engage in more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and maintain their trend growth rates.

5. The presidential election year will see the US avoid recession, growing 2.5% in 2012 and 3.0% in 2013

6. Governments will ensure that an expanding economy converts to a steady growth in entrepreneurial growth and jobs

7. Retail sales will jump start the global recovery as consumer and business confidence improves.

8. New housing and new business starts will significantly increase as effective demand shows up on the bottom line. 

9. Banks will have much greater liquidity and be looking to fund entrepreneurs and smart companies with good business prospects.

Despite all evidence that this will be the year of devastating new carbon and mining taxes and hefty rises in electricity bills and other costs, most Australians will be getting back more of their money from the fiscal fiend, including significant redistribution of income to millions of households in carbon tax compensation payments.

The Royal Bank of Scotland’s strategists are showing early sings of optimism despite Britain’s austerity budget, forecasting that European stocks will rise by as much as 25 per cent by the end of 2012 as the world economy “shrugs off” the region’s debt crisis.
 
Even the more cautious forecasts are for single-digit earnings growth. So maybe even if European economies and UK households are in the red, the year of the black water dragon may prove a golden opportunity after all.

So to paraphrase Annie again:  When I’m stuck with a year that’s been grey and lonely, just stick out your chin and say the sun’ll come out tomorrow – you’re only a few days away.

Dr Colin Benjamin is an entrepreneurship and strategic thinking consultant at Marshall Place Associates, which offers a range of strategic thinking tools that open up a universe of new possibilities for individuals and organisations committed to applying the processes of innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship. Colin is also a member of the global Association of Professional Futurists.