Now is not the time

The recent spate of natural disasters around Australia, including devastating floods in much of Australia, cyclones across Northern Australia and bushfires in Perth and Eastern Victoria are clearly impacting on the level of consumer confidence, according to Roy Morgan Research.

Many food crops have been wiped out and this will add to inflation, while paying for reconstruction is likely to hit the hip pocket of many affluent Australians who are being asked to pay a flood tax, a carbon tax and more into superannuation funds.

Gary Morgan reports that “consumer confidence in Australia has continued its recent downward trend, in a week falling 3.0pts to 117.7 — its largest weekly fall since the November rate rises, and fourth straight weekly fall.

“Driving the fall are worries about the Australian economy over the next 12 months and next five years; just 33% (down 4% – the lowest since May 2010) ‘good times’ over the next 12 months and an increasing 31% (up 3% – the highest since July 2009) expect ‘bad times’ over the next 12 months. 18% (up 3%) also expect ‘bad times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years.”

What this suggests is that now is also not the time for Glenn Stevens to be raising interest rates at a time when smart companies are struggling to retain good staff, build their order books and recover from the combined effects of the GFC and the natural hazards of the Australian love affair with houses built in insurance risk zones.

However, as access to capital for sound small business ventures improves, and while consumer confidence is rebounding in Asia, the United States and Europe, now may be the time to plan for a visit to emerging markets, trade fairs and other avenues for export expansion.

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Dr Colin Benjamin is an entrepreneurship and strategic thinking consultant at Marshall Place Associates, which offers a range of strategic thinking tools that open up a universe of new possibilities for individuals and organisations committed to applying the processes of innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship. Colin is also a member of the global Association of Professional Futurists.